Friday, August 7, 2015



Honestly, I smiled and giggled when I read the content of my friend’s article on ‘Salah Ahmad Mazlan atau Tun Daim’ . I was shocked to see YB Dato’ Hj Ahmad Bin Maslan and YABhg Tun Daim Zainuddin were dragged to popularise his article. Living by being popular probably. I said to myself, “Kesian sungguh ...”.

Nevertheless, I applaud for his strive and drive efforts to pull something through to convince his bosses in the organisation where he works. Bare this in mind, the truth will still prevail as the world is now dictated by humans’ perception and it is just a matter of time, it will be self inflicted by humans’ own hands.

Neither an economist nor investment banker, but it takes a true street player to have the experience facing the real on the ground challenge to understand how it works and not merely dependent on statistics like GDP, GNP plus believe in rating given by agencies like S&P and Moody’s. I have to admit that I felt sad for him, as a person who has claimed himself to be a senior psy-war specialist, to have ‘cut and paste’ statistics without understanding and able to cross referencing what he has written.

Even though I have been challenged, I told myself why do I have to prove myself using Bitcoin Obliterates Theory, Quantity Theory or even analysing via Candlesticks Charts. It would be a waste of time. He would not understand in the first place.

I look up to the success of YABhg Tun Dr Mahathir’s proposed peg at RM3.80 to a US dollar. True it has raised many eyebrows. The best part was when he claimed that he was lucky that he did not read Economics during his university days. Otherwise, he would have had a mental block depending on economic theories and statistics.

As a person who saw IDR Rupiah went up to Rp16,000 to an American dollar over a few days at the point when all statistics and fundamentals were stable, when there was not even smog in the air like it has always been in Indonesia, the stock and currency market crashed, to some of us it was Economic Doom’s Day.

Today having the chance to be friends with ex-international rating agencies’ top executives in various businesses, I also found out that ratings on nations and securities are all based on fundamentals, plus ‘a good time out with them’. The dependence on organisations that organise statistics and ratings fully too is not healthy as the truth remains with the people and their feelings in the streets whether they are happy or under pressure.

My friend, I am very sure that you did not realise that one of the important aspects that contributed to the downfall of the Rupiah was due to the USD debt exposure at the national level. Obviously this was due to the lower USD financing cost as compared to IDR financing cost.

As the case now, 1MDB has an exposure of USD42.0 billion. In Malaysia, only Petronas would be logical to have such a large debt exposure. Worse situation is the said debt is not backed by fully USD revenue, but mostly ringgit based. A bubble burst will occur soon as what had happened in Indonesia should no action be taken soon.

Therefore my friend, you do not have to lay your figures up to quadruple digits and up to 5 decimal points to prove your fact. You, yourself has confirmed that the economic stability is based on the ‘feel good factor’ even at the time when all efforts have been implemented to curb the economic issue.

Looking at the current development, there is no sign that ‘the feel good factor’ will happen. Even now when Malaysia Ringgit is closing into RM3.80 and oil price futures index shows signs of falling, there is no effort made by the Prime Minister to announce immediate economic policies to curb the crisis.

First step forward to build this ‘feel good factor’ like what had happened in Indonesia is for Bapak Suharto to step down. Same goes to Malaysia now, this have to happen first.

As much as we were proud with the fact that Malaysia did better in pegging our ringgit to a dollar, avoiding IMF to dictate our economy, Indonesia is doing better now. Not because of IMF but because of a growing population.

In Malaysia, our population is growing but driven by foreign workers. As for the locals especially professionals, there have been series of brain drain. Malaysians have given up and only have one hope. PM please make a clear statement to SPRM without prejudice.

Only then, we will regain what we call as ‘The Feel Good Factor’

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